I will campaign for whoever the leader of our party is to be prime minister. "If that's Jeremy I'll do all I can to make sure he steps through the door of 10 Downing Street." A UKIP victory here would make good the long-held theory of party leader and candidate Paul Nuttall that his party can defeat Labour in parliamentary elections. Winning a seat at Westminster for himself would also see him triumph where his predecessor Nigel Farage failed. No wonder there's a glint in his eye. The idea of a UKIP win fits the key themes of the moment: Labour struggling, opposition to mainstream direct flights from chicago to mexico parties thriving. But that's why we should be cautious. Let's start with a confession: by-election speculation is grounded on even fewer facts than chatter about national politics. Rather than having those national polls about which we're so sceptical, we have no worthwhile polling at all. Candidates reporting the universally warm reception they have received on the doorstep are taking part in a grand tradition, but offering no evidence. UKIP's performance in by-elections since 2015 has been affordable flights to hawaii from fargo underwhelming; their best result in a parliamentary contest was a 3% improvement in their vote in Oldham West.
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